Double-Dip Recession Madness

My wife is a financial advisor who often watches financial news programs especially in the evening. I sometimes watch these shows to learn a thing or two about the current and future financial picture – not just for America but the entire world. CNBC is our primary financial network to keep up to date on financial news although sometimes we’ll tune in to Fox Business or CNN Business for an additional perspective.

Financial Markets Image from http://En.wikipedia.org

A regular theme I’ve heard over the 18 months (if not more) has to do with a double-dip recession. Originally, I wasn’t sure of the context of a double-dip recession but as time went on, and I heard more and more of this talk from economics. This theme became a common thread among financial doomsayers.

 

 

How many of the economists who suggest our latest recession will be followed by another recession actually have business or economic facts to back it up? If their predictions are disproven, will they be held accountable? Is this not a win-win for these doomsayers – if another recession happens in the near future, they are vindicated. And, if the economy improves and we don’t see this occurring, they can claim the United States was lucky to avoid a recession.

 

If you are an average dart player and you want a bull’s eye, keep playing. It’s only a matter of time before you hit your mark. Could the same thing apply to bearish economists? You have many bearish financial analysts and economists who continue to sound the alarm for a double-dip recession.

 

Look, there’s a lot of uncertainty with our current economy and much of what we’re going through is unchartered territory. Especially with the S & P downgrade of the Fed Government’s credit rating and stagnant economy. Most educated business people would not deny these facts. Regardless, I think predictors should be very careful about their suggestions and theories, as we just don’t know. It might be more useful if you’re not terribly optimistic about the near-term economic future to avoid saying “double dip recession” and say the economy will improve when we have a more balanced budget, when housing prices stabilize or companies begin to reinvest in the economy.

 

I suspect this phrase has been bantered about for a very long time without this occurring. I’m not suggesting it won’t occur, but when it is suggested, provide some valid evidence before making such an assertion.

 

I wonder how many of these economists and Wall Street experts are doing this for self-promotion and to build their brand? What’s their motivated to go on a financial news program and state the U.S. is definitely headed for double-dip recession. How is it useful for some economists to continue to predict we’ll have a double-dip recession?

 

One more thing, who’s keeping track of these “experts” that our economy is on a verge of another recession? Perhaps we should have a “score card” to help keep these experts accountable.

 

Doing some quick research, the Wall Street Journal in February of 2008 (see link below), suggest a double-dip recession might occur even though the economy was not officially beyond the current recession. By my calculation, that was over 40 months ago. When will this madness end?

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/02/08/double-dip-recession-ahead/

 

 

 

Kevin Schwarm

I have over 25 years of professional experience in business, information technology (IT), and customer service. Industry experience in retail, medical insurance, higher education, non-profit, financial services, and property and casualty insurance. Customer focused professional interested in providing value (save time, money and aggravation) by evaluating and analyzing information, services and products with a unique perspective.

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